An attendee at one of my Risk Management Presentations, Paul Juska, shared with me the term paper he put together showing the likely Risk Management activities Christopher Columbus went through to get financing for his trip to the Indies. It was well done and entertaining so I asked if I could publish it on my blog. Paul graciously agreed so I have posted it here for you to enjoy.
Small oversight leads to huge problems in largeest tunnel project
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| Bertha before drilling began in July 2013. CreditTed S. Warren/Associated Press |
It's been 18 months since I first blogged about Seattle's big dig project: the tunnel to replace the Alaskan Way viaduct. This was a huge project including the world's largest drill bit with a 57.5 feet diameter. I remember reading a few months ago about the bit hitting an unknown object that caused it to stall. What's going on now?
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| A hole dug by Bertha, the tunnel-boring machine that went dormant last December.CreditDavid Ryder for The New York Times |
In a recent NY Times article, we learn that the pipe it hit back in December caused damage that has stalled the drill until next March. Rescuing the bit required the drilling of a shaft to reach the damaged area, shoring up the tunnel it already dug to prevent it from collapsing, replacing huge parts then making further repairs.
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| A crane hoisting a tunnel-boring tool at a construction site where a large shaft is being dug to get to Bertha. CreditDavid Ryder for The New York Times |
One of the biggest problems is the size of everything involved. When everything is scaled up, the cost and time to repair problems scales up exponentially. The eighteen month delay and hundreds of millions in budget overruns all stem from an eight inch diameter steel pipe that nobody involved in the project knew was in the way of Bertha. I'd love to see the official risk management of this project.
The Art of Project Management - Chapter Three
Having recently read Sun Tzu's 'Art of War' I saw many similarities between war and managing projects. Call the enemies risk and chaos and most of the 2,500 year old advice applies quite well. So I am going to dedicate a few posts to what I humbly call: 'The Art of Project Management.' I give Sun Tzu full credit for his observations. I simply paraphrase him to shift the advice to my field.
Chapter Three
Risk Management
1. Sun Tzu said: The good Project Managers of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, then waited for an opportunity of defeating the project risks.
2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating risks is provided by the risks themselves.
3. Thus the good Project Manager is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the risks.
4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it.
5. Security against defeat implies risk management; ability to defeat risks means Planning Risk Responses.
6. Risk Avoidance indicates insufficient strength; Risk Acceptance, a superabundance of strength.
7. The Project Manager who is skilled in Risk Avoidance hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in Risk Acceptance flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven. Thus on the one hand we have the ability to protect ourselves; on the other, a victory that is complete.
8. To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence.
9. Neither is it the acme of excellence if you execute and succeed and the whole organization says "Well done!"
10. To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength; to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a sharp ear.
11. What the ancients called a clever Project Manager is one who not only succeeds but excels in succeeding with ease.
12. Hence his victories bring him neither reputation for wisdom nor credit for courage.
13. He succeeds in his projects by making no mistakes. Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory; for it means conquering risks that have already been mitigated.
14. Hence the skillful Project Manager puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating his risks.
15. Thus it is in Project Management that the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.
16. The consummate leader cultivates the moral law, and strictly adheres to method and discipline; thus it is in his power to control success.
17. In respect of Risk Management, we have, firstly, Plan Risk Management; secondly, Identify Risks; thirdly, Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis; fourthly, Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis; fifthly, Plan Risk Responses; sixthly, Monitor and Control Risks; seventhly, Success.
18. Plan Risk Management owes its existence to the organization; Identify Risks to Plan Risk Management; Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis to Identify Risks; Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis to Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis; Plan Risk Responses to Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis; Monitor and Control Risks to Plan Risk Responses; Success to Monitor and Control Risks.
19. A successful project opposed to a failed one, is a pound's weight placed in the scale against a single grain.
20. The onrush of a well-planned project is like the bursting of pent-up waters into a chasm a thousand fathoms deep.