PMO Creation - Week 15

I'm the first to admit that my lack of bandwidth has stalled the efforts of my team. I am only able to steal myself away from my current project for a couple of hours every Wednesday morning to meet with my team and then show up at the Steering Committee meeting every Friday morning. That means Mike and Sarah and left with all the heavy lifting. As a result, the consolidated project plan they put together for this week's meeting, that looked pretty sparse on Wednesday, did not meet our CEO's satisfaction by Friday. Frankly we all looked pretty bad. I promised we would have a better one in place by next week and that I would meet with one of our teams to show what we wanted to accomplish.

That meeting was like pulling teeth. The team members were confused about what we were asking. Even though I had put the leader through my Cadence training a few years back, she couldn't seem to understand that by giving me hours of effort she still had to have a conversation with me to determine the durations. She was convinced that this was simply dependent on priority and didn't get that other tasks within her high priority projects and time spent on ongoing operations could affect these durations.

Another leader in this group expressed the opinion that all Project Management is useless. One of the lower level guys said that they just do a bunch of work whenever and pay no attention to priorities. The other two lower level women just smiled and nodded. It is becoming clearer and clearer to me that we are doing some things backwards. We really needed to train the employees in the methodology before trying to plan these projects.

Also we should have had a formal announcement from the CEO expressing his confidence in the PMO and the process we are following and get his authority to ask these questions. Mike has been good about bugging me to ask for this and we received a draft from the marketing group of an announcement. Here it is slightly redacted:

All,

As you may know, Bruce Fieggen, QPharma’s longtime VP of Project Management, has agreed to take the helm of QPharma’s Project Management Office in addition to his client-facing duties. 

The QPharma Project Management Office, or PMO, is responsible for prioritizing, scheduling, resourcing, and managing the many internal projects necessary for the ongoing operation of our Commercial Services division — most notably, the development of Python™ and our other Information Technology systems.  It is crucial to the PMO’s success that all colleagues cooperate fully with PMO deadlines, resource requirements, requests for information, etc. — please accept my thanks, in advance, for your active participation in this process.

Over the past several weeks, a Project Management Steering Committee has been formed, and we have been meeting regularly and going about the arduous process of identifying and prioritizing the dozens of projects that demand QPharma’s attention.  In the coming weeks and months, please expect to hear from Bruce, his two Project Managers (Sarah Gerardo and Michael Gerace), and other members of the Steering Committee with various requests related to your role in helping this effort run smoothly.

I look forward to keeping you informed as our important work progresses.  Once again, thank you.

Kind regards,

CEO

PMO Creation - Week 14

No steering committee meeting this week so my team could focus on getting the Master Gantt chart together. Let's hope they pull it off to the CEO's satisfaction. I am still too busy on my current project and putting together proposals for two new projects to be much help. I'll see what they come up with on Wednesday and give them some advice.

PMO Creation - Week 13

During my weekly PMO meeting I apologized to my team for allowing them to be criticized by the CEO for not being prepared. I promised I would stick up for them in the steering committee meeting. During the first part of the steering committee meeting I spent the first few minutes insisting that the chain of command be followed and that nobody criticizes my people but me. It was tense but my CEO trusts me. I reminded him of what I told him during my interview when he asked: "What am I going to find out about you two weeks after I hire you that I wish I knew now?" I told him: "I'm blunt." And I've proved that to be right many times since.

After the dust had settled we got back to the agenda with one added item. Our big software program: Rock Python, had many elements that people wanted prioritized. On opening this file up, we saw that some of the projects were actually sub-projects of others. But the people were not showing how many resources were needed on a weekly basis because they didn't understand how the system worked. I was very frustrated.

Once again we looked for completed projects and once again, none quite got there. I reminded the steering committee that these projects were supposed to last 2 - 4 weeks and many should have completed by now. We all agreed that this system was really highlighting this deficiency.

The CEO asked for something out of the ordinary. Could he please pull the non-IT projects out of the list and make them their own separate list. I told him this was OK as long as they did not require resources from the other projects. He agreed and pulled about 12 projects out of the main list. We re-prioritized these and moved to resourcing.

The rest of the steering committee was getting frustrated at trying to figure out how many hours people would need to spend over how much time. (Duration vs. Level of Effort) So the CEO asked for another new thing. Could we place all the IT projects on one Gantt chart and track level of effort there? I was dubious but, since the Excel sheet wasn't working, I decided to give it a try.

He asked how you do this. I showed him one of my projects' Gantt charts showing how I break out Work from Duration and allow MS-Project to calculate % of resources required per task. I showed how this allowed one to see the resource graph and highlight where resources were scarce.

He was excited and asked that my team create this master Gantt chart. I asked for two weeks for them to perform this work. We argued back and forth but I got my team two weeks. Let's hope they pull it off. The CEO promised to do the same job by himself for teh non-IT projects over the weekend.

PMO Creation - Week 3

Now that we have a mission, it's time to determine how to put this into practice. I did a bit of research and found an excellent site that advises people on how to set up a PMO. Here it is: www.practicalpmo.com. Simon Wilkinson offers a free 7 steps guide and plugs his book. I may yet buy that book.

With his free guide in hand, I sat down with my team and developed a Gantt chart for the work we see ahead of us. Using good PM practices, I asked them to volunteer for activities and give me their estimates for duration. We are using this to complete our activities and check on our progress as we proceed. Here's a link to the Gantt chart we came up with:

Once again I distributed this chart to those who will be affected immediately by this work. I am not distributing it to the PMs outside the PMO until we have our processes in place. We want to be perceived as an asset to their efforts, not something else that starts with the same three letters.

Control Schedule

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the twenty-sixth one: Control Schedule. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes.  26 Control Schedule

 

Fred and Gwilym were talking about how to make the most profit on this project. “In th’past,” said Fred. “We had to pay a premium for labor during harvest and plantin’ time. If we had more slack time in th’schedule, we could just let the men go free durin’ these times and save a lot of money.”

“True,” agreed Gwilym. “We need to Control Schedule just like we Control Costs. But how can we build in that much slack time?”

“We can measure it now, using this ‘Earned Value Analysis’ and look at Schedule Variance and compare it to th’Critical Path and see how we are really doin’. Then we can decide how much free time we have.”

“I agree that this Variance Analysis measures the slack time, but it doesn’t build any in,” said Gwilym.

The two men looked over the schedule and discussed different ways to speed up the plan during the cheap labor times.

“Remember how we did Resource Levelin’ to make sure we weren’t overusin’ our people?” asked Fred. “Couldn’t we add more people and raise th’level by one to shorten the timeframe?”

“Yes we could,” agreed Gwilym. “We can often make ten men do a ten day job quicker than five men. Sometimes it works better than others.”

“How does tha mean, Gwilym?”

“Well,” Gwilym thought. “Say we are digging a small hole. One man can dig at a certain speed. Adding another man gets in the way of the first man though they can spell each other and gets it done one and a half times faster. That’s not too efficient. But putting logs in place means that one man doesn’t have to keep moving from one end of a log to another and use levers and pulleys to put the log where it belongs. Three men moving logs is better than three times as fast as one man doing it. It’s probably ten times as fast.”

Fred was nodding all through this. “Aye! And layin’ foundations is th’same. Tha needs one man to bring th’rocks to th’other man laying them or he falls behind quickly. And we can use a lower cost laborer to bring th’rocks to th’higher priced mason. But can we lay rocks from more than one place at th’same time?”

“What do you mean, Fred?”

“Well. Say we have th’wooden walls of th’tower built. And we’re layin’ rocks around th’outside. Could we have one pair of men working on one corner, goin’ around th’tower and another pair working th’opposite corner and they meet each other’s walls about th’same time? Or would that cause problems if they are not at th’same level?”

Gwilym thought for a moment, then smiled broadly. “It could work! The masons first string around the tower already to ensure the level and build the rock up to that level. So, we could have as many as four masons working at the same time, one starting at each corner and building up a level to the next man’s corner. Then they lay the next string, that works better with four men, then go to the next layer.”

“Even better,” said Fred. “We could have one laborer for every two masons. They always work faster than th’masons because all they do is bring stones, the mason needs to select th’right stone and mortar it into place.”

“So let’s get this straight. With four masons and two laborers we could do the stone cladding at four times the pace of what we had scheduled? That’s amazing! We could clad this tower in 30 days rather than 120. And that is right on the critical path so every day we save is a day off the tower!” Gwilym was getting excited.

But Fred was shaking his head. “That might be too fast, Gwilym. We have to think about giving th’mortar time to set. Maybe we should only use two masons and one laborer. Can’t build it so fast it comes crashin’ down.”

Gwilym nodded in agreement, then said. “I like the term, though.  ‘Crashing.’ That’s what we did to the schedule. Crashed a huge part of it by adding resources efficiently. We’ll halve the time of a major part of it by increasing our resources by one mason but all the men will be working for regular pay, not harvest pay.”

“There are other ways to speed up th’schedule,” said Fred. “We could do some of th’jobs at th’same time or almost th’same time rather than wait for one to finish.”

“We already do that. We’re building the roads while we build the tower. We gather supplies while we dig foundations.”

“Aye, but there are other jobs we could do in parallel. They’re a little riskier but we could do them. What about claddin’ th’lower stories of th’tower in rock while we are buildin’ th’higher stories. And even completin’ some of th’inner work while we build th’structure?”

Gwilym considered this. “You’re right about it adding risk. That’s the main reason we have always waited until the structure is complete before we work on the inside and outside. We’ve already run the cladding and inside work in parallel before when we’ve needed to catch up on the schedule because of bad weather. But what about running all three in parallel?”

“We will get in each other’s way when we’re tryin’ to lift th’logs up high,” said Fred.

“And if we drop a log in the process, we’ll destroy whatever work we’ve done below and probably kill some men.”

“When’s th’last time we dropped a log? I thought that finished with Tarrant,” said Fred.

“It’s still too risky to build inner work made of wood underneath a moving log. I won’t do it. But rock cladding should survive a falling log. Maybe a few rocks will need to be replaced. But we can’t risk men’s lives. How about this? We build the first couple of stories of log tower. Then we start cladding it in rock. But we stop work whenever we raise a new log in place. That only takes a few minutes each time. The men can stagger their breaks to fit that schedule. Then, once the tower structure is complete, we start work on the inside.”

Fred was looking at the schedule. “That will take a lot of time off th’schedule.” Do we call this crashing as well?”

Gwilym thought for a moment. “It’s different. Instead of adding resources, we’re moving deliverables and tasks to run in parallel. It’s like the tracks of a cart. Let’s call it ‘Fast Tracking’ instead. And let’s always think of the risks involved when we do it. Makes no sense to be gold-foolish while being copper-wise. I’d hate to save a couple of days and bring on a disaster that costs us weeks.”

 

Develop Schedule

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the eleventh one: Develop Schedule. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes.    Develop Schedule

 

Gwilym smiled, winked and touched the side of his nose. Then he looked at the project schedule. He drew arrows connecting all the activities together. Some activities moved in steady series, others were linked to more than one activity resulting in an intricate network of activities.

Network1

network2

network3

network4

That evening, Gwilym, Fred and Bleddyn looked over the network diagram and started adding up the durations to try to predict the end date of the project. But as the network increased in complexity due to the multiple pathways he kept losing track. Bleddyn suggested he write the start and finish dates above each activity. So, he started at the first activity writing that as day one and finishing on day three, then went to the four activities that stemmed from this and had them all start on day four. Depending on their durations, they finished on different days.

One of these activities was predicted to take five days and, as he wrote a finish date of day eight, Bleddyn interrupted. “But what about Sunday, Da? The men won’t work on Sunday. Do we have to add a day for that?”

Gwilym thought for a moment, then shook his head. “Right now we’ll just figure out the number of days. Then, when we transfer the work to a calendar, we’ll take Sundays and other Holy Days into account. It’ll be too confusing trying to do it without the calendar.”

The difficulty came in when several activities converged on one and the start date depended on the finish of the last predecessor activity. But the men soon got used to it and were working together in unison adding up the days until they determined the total time required to complete the project.

small network

Fred sighed and said, “That were confusin’. I’m used to addin’ five to four and comin’ up wi’ nine, not eight.”

Gwilym furrowed his brow and asked Fred to explain.

“We said that an activity starts on day four and takes five days. So I thought it would end on day nine. But it ends on day eight.”

Gwilym cleared his brow and smiled. “What’s the answer, Bleddyn?” he asked.

Bleddyn replied, “Sunup to sundown is on the same day even if a day’s work is done. So starting at sunup on day four and finishing at sundown on day eight is five day’s work.” He counted on his fingers: Day four, day five, day six, day seven, day eight. “Notice that the next activity starts on day nine. So if you look at the start of this activity and the start of the next activity, five days have gone by.”

Fred clapped the boy on his shoulder and flashed a broad smile. “Tha were always a clever boy, Bleddyn. Tha take after thy father.”

 

Next morning they inspected the site which had been almost cleared by the full team. Fred joined Gwilym and Bleddyn transferring the activities to a calendar. The first thing they did was mark off every Sunday and Holy Day from the calendar they had gotten from Father Drew. Then they wrote down, on each working day, which activities would be worked on that day. They found that by following the plan they would be finished two weeks after Beltane.

Gwilym returned his gaze to the network diagram. “There are some activities here that could be sped up by taking men from other activities and putting them to work there.”

“But won’t that only slow down th’activities you take them from?”

“Aye, it will. But look at this.” He pointed out two strings of activities that both led to one common activity. “See how this first set of activities finishes on day 6 but the string below finishes on day 8. That means that this activity cannot start until day 9 because they both have to finish before we can do that one. So if I take men from the short string and add them to the longer one, maybe I can finish both strings in day 7. That will cut 1 day from the end of the project.”

“Where else can tha do that?”

“Let’s find all the places where strings come together and see.

The three identified all these activities of confluence and noted, in each case, which preceding string of activities finished last. Gwilym noted each one with a red dot. In one case he saw that the string he had noted led to an activity that was part of a string that later on was not colored red. That was because a different string leading to that same activity of confluence was longer still. He pointed this out to Fred and Bleddyn.

“There can be only one path that defines the length of the project. Look what happens if we go backwards. We start at the end, come to the first activity of confluence and follow the red dots to the second activity of confluence, then follow the red dots backwards all the way until we get to the start activity. All those other red dots don’t matter. We need to focus on this path. It is the critical path that defines the length of the project.”

“But Da, if you decrease the length of this ‘critical path’ won’t some of these other paths become critical?”

“Good point lad! We’ll have to keep an eye on them. But first, let’s look at the activities on the critical path and see which ones are most likely to be able to be sped up by adding more people.”

They noted some candidates.

When the crew came in for dinner, they asked them how the work was progressing. All the men seemed upbeat and Siorys estimated that they would be done by the end of today. After eating, some men gathered at the network diagram to find their activities. They asked what the red dots meant. Gwilym explained and the men nodded their agreement. “You stone masons always hold up my work,” groused one of the men.

“Our project must be finished by Beltane. The way we have it planned makes it finish two weeks late. We have to find ways to reduce the duration of some of these critical activities. Can we add men who are not being used at this time to these five critical activities to speed them up?”

The men gathered around and talked amongst themselves. “I’ll not be busy during that time,” volunteered one. “Perhaps so, but you’ll gum up the works,” joked another. The men talked it over with Gwilym and agreed that by adding men they could ‘crash’ parts of the project to bring the end date in closer to Beltane.

When the men returned to work, Fred helped Gwilym change the numbers on the network diagram and redo the calendar. This time they were only a day after Beltane.

“That’s all right, then Gwilym. They’re going to finish th’clearing a day early so we’ll be fine.”

“It’s too tight. Something always goes wrong in these projects and I’d like some room to move the project when that happens. We need a safety zone, a buffer. What else can we do?”

Fred studied the network diagram. “Here is a long string of activities that needs to be shortened. Do they all have to go after each other? Couldn’t we move one to the string above?”

“You mean do the activity in parallel instead of in series? Let’s see.”

The two men were joined by Bleddyn staring at the long string of activities.

“Building the stairs is slowing down a lot of activities. We can’t start it until the outside of the tower is built but we can’t do a lot of other activities until the stairs are in place. Can we build them independently of the tower and then move them in later?”

Fred laughed at this, then, seeing Gwilym’s expression, quieted and grew thoughtful. “We couldn’t build th’entire set of stairs outside th’tower but we could build all th’flights outside and then put them together inside. That would save a lot of time.”

Gwilym smiled and said, “Let’s ask the carpenter.”

The carpenter agreed and the new plan predicted them finishing a week before Beltane. Gwilym obtained a new hide and asked Fred to transfer the activities to this new sheet, making a clean copy of the plan they could use to build the tower.

“What do tha call these new tools, Gwilym?” asked Fred as he worked, humming his song.

Gwilym smiled. “What words are easy to rhyme with?”

“I can rhyme with anything. Tell me what you call those tools.”

“Let’s see. First we estimated the duration of each activity, then we placed them in sequence, then we developed the schedule. We used a Network Diagram to visualize the schedule, then placed the activities on a calendar to manage them on a daily basis. Adding resources to an activity to speed it up is ‘Crashing’ and running two activities in series that are usually done in parallel is ‘Fast-tracking’”

Fred went back to work amusing Gwilym with occasional outbursts of “Network, Get work, Duration, Damnation, Nation, Sequence, Frequents.”

Sequence Activities

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the tenth one: Sequence Activities. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes.   Sequence Activities

 

When they had settled down, Gwilym said, “We know WHY and WHERE this tower is to be built. We know WHAT is to be built and HOW it will be built. We know WHO will do what to build it. All we are lacking is WHEN it will be done. When do each of these activities need to be done? What is the most efficient sequence? How can we keep people from getting into each other’s way?”

He directed the men to the Work Breakdown Structure and asked them. “Which is the first activity?”

There was some discussion until the men agreed that staking out the foundation needed to be done first. Fred, who had the duplicate Work Breakdown Structure on the chair in front of him, fished out this activity and placed it on the new hide. Gwilym moved it to the top left of the hide and asked the man who had taken responsibility for it.

“Hey! What about this activity under the deliverable of road that says ‘Clear the site?’ Shouldn’t that be the first activity?” asked one of the junior members of the team.

The rest looked embarrassed and agreed with him.

Gwilym looked at the man responsible for the staking out activity. “Does the site need to be cleared before you stake it out?”

“Aye.”

Gwilym moved the first activity to the right and took the clearing activity Fred had fished out for him and placed it to that activity’s left.

“What’s the next activity?”

“Dig the foundation hole.”

“Buy the timber.”

“Measure for timber.”

“Bring up the stones.”

“All sound like early activities” said Gwilym. “Do any of them wait on any other activities?”

“Got to measure for timber and stone before we buy them and bring them up,” replied one.

“No sense bringing the stone up now. It will get in everyone’s way!”

“But if we wait too long we’ll be running short and delaying everything.”

Gwilym raised his hands. “Can we agree that measuring for timber and stone is the next activity?”

All nodded their heads and Gwilym moved this activity into place. “Buy timber?”

Again they agreed and Gwilym placed this next to the previous activity. “How about order stone?”

They nodded and Gwilym placed this activity below the ‘Buy timber’ activity.

This caused some discussion. “Why did you put the activity there?” asked one of the crew.

“This means it can be done at the same time as buying the timber but by a different person at a different place. Now, how long do these activities take?”

The men gave their durations and Gwilym wrote these numbers on the activities.

The team continued in this way, placing and rearranging activities on the bull hide and writing durations on the activities. The intricate structure of the work revealed itself to the team. Some activities were added during this session and other activities were determined to be unnecessary when looked at in the light of the overall project. When this happened, Fred made the appropriate adjustments to the Work Breakdown Structure.

By dinnertime, the men were satisfied that the project had been fully planned. Fred and Gwilym started organizing the activities while the men helped themselves to dinner. “What do tha call this, Gwilym?” Fred asked.

“Sequence Activities,” he replied.

“Nay, not th’whole thing. I mean th’way tha decides one activity comes afore another?”

“Oh,” Gwilym thought for a while. “One activity depends on another so we should call it something like Dependency Determination. Does that sound formal enough for your song?”

While they ate, standing around with their trenchers in their hands, looking at the network diagram, Gwilym asked them each to find their own first activity. Then he said, “After dinner, the only people who can work are those who are working on the ‘clear the site’ activity for three days. The rest of you can go home.”

On hearing the expected sounds of disappointment emanating from the team, he said, “Unless you’d rather get in each other’s way and slow down the whole project.”

There was some grumbling until Siorys said, “How about if we all help with the clearing activity?” Then it’ll be done quicker and we can start our activities earlier and still be paid for the day.”

The other men perked up at this suggestion and looked hopefully at Gwilym. He seemed to consider this idea and then agreed to it. The men were all excited now and gulped down their meal to begin working.

As the men rushed out to clear the site and Gwilym stayed behind with Fred to stitch the activities into the bull hide, Fred looked long at Gwilym. “That was thy idea weren’t it? Having them all volunteer to clear th’site together? You made it seem like their idea but tha led them to it.”

Gwilym smiled, winked and touched the side of his nose.

Estimate Activity Durations

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the ninth one: Estimate Activity Durations. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes.  Estimate Activity Durations

"Now, how long do these activities take?”

The men gave their durations and Gwilym wrote these numbers on the activities.

The team continued in this way, placing and rearranging activities on the bull hide and writing durations on the activities. The intricate structure of the work revealed itself to the team. Some activities were added during this session and other activities were determined to be unnecessary when looked at in the light of the overall project. When this happened, Fred made the appropriate adjustments to the Work Breakdown Structure.

At some points, the men took a while deciding on the duration of an activity. The first time Gwilym saw a man struggling, he asked “What’s going on inside your head right now?”

“Well,” replied the man. “I’m thinking about the last time I did this job and how long that took. It was eight days. But this job is about twice as big so perhaps it’s sixteen. But the weather was horrible last time and this time it looks like we’ll be doing it in June, not December. So I have to make adjustments for that. So I’ll say twelve days.”

Gwilym broke out into a broad smile and turned to the rest of the men. “See what he did there? That’s exactly what I want you to do. If you’ve done the activity before, and remember how long it took, use that as an example for how long this new activity will take. And don’t forget to make adjustments like Frank here did based on the realities. That is called…” he turned to Fred, “Analogous Estimating.”

When the time came to decide how long it took to build the main walls of the tower, the head carpenter talked out loud. “Each log will take an hour of carving to get the notches just right but we can do that with one group of men while the other places the previous log. So the time to do this activity is the time it takes to place each log properly in the tower. That will be pretty quick for the first few logs but will take longer as we have to start using winches to put them in place. So the ground level logs will take one hour apiece and the higher logs will take about two hours a piece so that we’re careful not to drop them.”

“Good,” said Gwilym. “How many hours does that make it all together?”

The man calculated in his head. “Four logs per level, four high before we need to start using the winch, so it’s sixteen hours for the first eight feet. That’s two days with expected problems and setting up the winch for day three. Then it’s two hours per log after that, that’s one day per two foot layer. That’s sixteen more days. So a total of eighteen days to raise the logs to the top.”

Fred asked, “That’s different than ‘Analogous Estimating’ right? What do tha call it?”

“He’s using parameters and multiplying them by the number of units. Let’s call it “Parametric Estimating.”

Later the carpenters were arguing about the duration for building the stairs. As usual, Gwilym asked them to state the assumptions they were using to get to their estimates. One was assuming warm weather, the other was assuming cold and rainy weather. Since the stairs looked like they would be built in the early spring, it was unclear which assumption was most likely. Gwilym suggested a compromise. “Let’s assume first that the weather is perfect the entire time. How long would it take to build the stairs?” The two arguing men agreed on twelve days.

“Now we’ll assume it is cold and rainy the entire time, maybe even snow. Then how long will it take?” The men talked amongst themselves for a while and came up with a duration of forty days.

“Now we’ll take the most likely estimate. Assume a typical spring, with some nice days, some rainy, one day of snow. Now how long will it take?” The two men agreed on sixteen days.

“Good!” said Gwilym, writing these three numbers on the wall. “Now we do some mathematics. We take the optimistic estimate, add to it the pessimistic estimate and four times the most likely estimate and divide the result by six. So we have 12, plus 40 plus 4 times 16 equals 116. Divide that by 6 and we get a little over 19. So let’s estimate 20 days for this activity.”

Duration estimate = (T0 +4xTr +Tp)/6  = (12+4x16 + 40)/6 = 116/6 = 19.3days

The men appeared impressed. Fred asked him, “What do tha call that one, Gwilym?”

“Three-point estimating,” he replied. “They use that technique for calculating caravan journey times in the east.”