Monitor and Control Risks

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the thirty-first one: Monitor and control Risks. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes. 

One day, Borg, who still worked hard every day, despite his riches, asked to speak to Gwilym alone. When the two men had walked off a space into the old orchard, Borg shuffled his feet and seemed at a loss for words. “What’s on your mind, Borg?” asked Gwilym wondering if the man was finally going to quit and use his riches for another profession. He hoped not, since Gwilym had named his head of the laborers for his intelligence and foresight.

Borg met Gwilym’s eye. “Remember ven all de risks on dis project ve determined?”

Gwilym said yes.

“And remember ven vich risks vere highest and lowest and most probable and least probable ve determined?”

“Yes.”

“And den ve determined vat our responses to dese risks vould be. How ve vould avoid some risks, mitigate others, transfer some and de rest accept.”

“Aye, I remember it all.”

“Vell,” said Borg, looking down at his shuffling feet. “Ve seem to be ignoring dem now.”

That gave Gwilym pause. “Ignoring them?” he asked finally. “We made changes to the project plan when we avoided or transferred the risks. We’re watching out for the risks we mitigated and accepted. Why would you say we’re ignoring them?”

“But dat is my point. Ve are vatching out for de risks ve mitigated and accepted but only vatching for dem to happen and saying, ‘Oh vell, ve zought dat might happen.’ Ve should be more active in vatching out for dem I zink. If ve know dere is a risk ahead, can ve not for early varning signs or somezing vatch out?”

“Hmm,” thought Gwilym out loud. “You’re asking me to monitor and control the risks just the way I monitor and control the project work. How would I do that?”

“De Project Plan and de Risk Register you haf. You can de project performance against your expectations measure. You can if some of de early varning signs dat a risk is about to occur are coming see.”

“We do variance analysis already for the scope of the project. I suppose we could use that for Risk Monitoring…”

“And ve need de risks to reassess. Sometimes, zings happen and de risks get better or vorse but ve don’t change de vay ve are dem treating.”

“You’re quite right Borg. Let’s get Fred involved and we’ll plan a way to improve our process.”

They went back to the project work-room and pulled out the scrolls and ink and formalized the process for monitoring and controlling project risks. In addition to the tools they had identified before, they added a process called Risk Audits to actively look at future risks, Reserve Analysis, to see how realized and future risks affected the project reserve and Risk Register Updates to make any needed changes to the Risk Register.

When the three men looked at what they had accomplished, they were happy and shook hands all around. Borg was looking quite pleased with himself.

Plan Risk Responses

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the twenty-second one: Plan Risk Responses. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes. 

After Vespers the men gathered in the common room again to start dealing with all the risks. Fred and Bleddyn had rewritten the Risk Register in order of Risk Total with the question of the statues heading the list.

“Today we need to plan our responses to the risks we have identified and qualified. There are four possible responses. We ‘Avoid’ the risk by not doing the risky part of the scope of this project. For example: If we don’t want access doors in the tower walls to weaken the structure, we could choose to eliminate these doors and provide access only from the top or bottom of the walls.”

“You can ‘Mitigate’ the risk by doing something to lower the probability of it occurring or the severity if it does occur. Putting a tent over the hole won’t lower the probability of it raining but it will lower the severity of rainfall on the foundation hole.”

“Third, you can ‘Transfer’ the risk by paying someone on the outside of this team to do a risky activity for you. You would do that by hiring someone to do something you are not skilled in. Seasoning wood or cutting stone for example. They take on the risk and have to deal with the consequences if it arises.”

“Lastly, you can ‘Accept’ a risk if it will cost more to mitigate it than it will cost if the risk comes true. We’re more likely to ‘Accept’ risks near the bottom of this list.”

“So let’s start at the highest risk and work our way down. The first risk is that the new statues will wear down quickly like the old statues did. Who can tell me about that?”

Abbot Crawford stepped forward. “Most of the statues were made during my stay here. Joseph of Arimathea’s statue had always stood in the church and was as old as the church, several hundred years. The same goes for the statues of Jesus, Joseph, Mary and Mary Magdalene. But about twenty years ago we had a donation to create twelve more statues, one for each of the apostles, along with the request to put them outside, on the steeple. Soon after we did so, they started to wear down. We believe it is due to the weather.”

“All right,” said Gwilym. “The statues are part of the scope of this project so we cannot avoid the risk, correct?” All the monks nodded. “And we cannot accept the risk either, right?” More nods. “Can we transfer this risk to someone else?”

The monks were lost in deep thought until Father Drew broke the silence. “I do not see how we can transfer this risk. No matter who erects the statues in the new steeple, they will be exposed to whatever elements caused them to wear down last time. We are responsible for their care. Unless one of us knows of some person or group who has more experience taking care of statues. Someone who has seen this problem before and will ensure that they do not wear.”

Gwilym spoke up. “I have toured Rome and have seen many marble statues that have been exposed to hundreds, even thousands of years of outside exposure and they have not worn like yours have in twenty years. There were no caretakers of these statues. Are we sure they were made of marble?”

“See for yourself tomorrow,” he was told.

“So it appears we must mitigate this risk. We need to reduce the probability of the wear taking place again or the severity of the wear on the project.”

Father Drew spoke again, “If they wear the same way, the severity will be the same. We must reduce the probability somehow.”

The rest of the monks agreed. “Any ideas on reducing the probability of these statues wearing down?” asked Gwilym.

There was a studied silence. “Then let’s leave this risk for later study and move on to the next risk.”

They worked for the next few hours, finding solutions to reduce probability or severity in some risks, transferring others, avoiding a few until they came down to the more minimal risks. After choosing to accept ten risks in a row, Gwilym made an announcement.

“There are fifty more risks, all with a Risk Total lower than the last ten we accepted. Is it fair to assume we will accept all of these risks as well?”

A cheer arose from the monks who were getting anxious as Compline approached.

“Good. Then I suggest we break now. I’ll see you in the morning again and we’ll restart work on the tower. Tomorrow, after Vespers, we’ll meet again here to add activities to the project plan that came out of these mitigated, avoided and transferred risks. Good night brothers, father.”

Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the twenty-first one: Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes. 

“All right then,” said Gwilym. We have the tool we need to sort the risks we identified, what do we call it?”

“Quantify Risks?” suggested Bleddyn. “We end up with a number that indicates how bad the risks are.”

“We do,” agreed Gwilym, “but the number isn’t really the quantity. For instance, if we found a risk that Fred just mentioned that cost a week and two gold and the probability score we gave it was Five, we would score it a Twenty-five. But twenty-five what? Gold? Silver? Days? Twenty-five is not the quantity of the risk. The real risk to the project would be the impact on the cost and the schedule divided by 1,000 because that is the chance of that risk occurring. So the quantified risk would be 1/500 of a gold or one third of a copper piece and 10 minutes. But that’s assuming we know exactly the probability and the severity. More likely we’re just guessing the relative size of the risks.”

“So what we are really doing is performing Risk Qualification, not Quantification. We get a relative number we can use to sort risks into those we have to deal with and those we can allow to happen.”

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the twentieth one: Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes.

During the Sext service, Gwilym checked on the progress of Fred and Bleddyn. Bleddyn had used his carpenter’s ruler to mark out a precise table for the Risk Register. Fred was reading the risks and Bleddyn was writing them down in the second column, using the first column to number them.

Fred asked Gwilym, “What do we do with some of these risks? They’re a single word, like ‘Rain’ or ‘Injury’. They don’t explain what could happen.”

Gwilym thought for a moment. “You’re right Fred. What we need to do is have a format for writing risks. Something along the lines of: ‘If something happens the result will be this.’ That way we can rewrite the ‘Rain’ risk to ‘If it rains for more than two weeks straight, the project will be delayed day for day for any additional rain.’”

“But what about rain while we’re digging the foundation, Da?”

“That’s right son. We should make another risk along those lines. ‘Any heavy rain that falls during the digging and building of the foundation will delay that activity and cause rework of digging done to date.’”

Fred and Bleddyn nodded and went back to rewriting all the risks onto the Risk Register.

They met the monks after Vespers and showed them the Risk Register. Father Drew and Abbot Crawford looked impressed. Fred had nailed the two scales into the wall, showing the meanings of 1 – 10 on probability and severity.

Gwilym started the session by telling the gathered monks, “We are going to qualify the risks. That means that we will determine which risks are the biggest and which the smallest.” Then he introduced the first risk.

“In the category of weather related risks, here is the first: ‘If it rains for more than two weeks straight, the project will be delayed day for day for any additional rain.’ What is the probability of this risk occurring?”

The men all laughed and said things along the lines of, “Pretty good around here.”

“Then we’ll rank the probability a 10,” said Gwilym. “What is the severity of this kind of weather on schedule and cost?”

The monks settled on a delay of two weeks for a severity of 5.

“Good. So we multiply these two numbers together and get a Risk Total of 50. Now we move to the next risk. ‘Any heavy rain that falls during the digging and building of the foundation will delay that activity and cause rework of digging done to date.’ We’ll be digging the foundations starting tomorrow. What’s the chance of heavy rain in the next two weeks?”

The monks discussed this for a while and replied that it was about a 1/10 with a probability score of 8.

“And the severity?”

More discussion ensued with the consensus being that summer rains were short so the delay wouldn’t be long. Worst case was if it rained just when they had finished the digging. They would have to empty the water from the hole and dig it out again for a delay of about four days and extra cost of eight gold.

“We’ll score this one a 6 and multiply it by the probability to give it a Risk Total of 48.”

One of the monks spoke up. “We could reduce the severity of this risk by assembling a pavilion over the digging so that the rain wouldn’t fall in the foundation hole.”

Another one added, “And trenches around it to drain the water away from the hole.” Others chimed in with ideas until Gwilym raised his hands.

“Great ideas brothers! Fred has noted them. But right now I’d like to keep us focused on qualifying the risks so that we can focus on the worst risks first and work our way down to the risks that are not worth worrying about.”

They worked their way through the rest of the identified risks, qualifying them all. Meanwhile, they added many others that they thought of while discussing the identified risks and qualified all these.

Identify Risks

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the ninteenth one: Identify Risks. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes.

After supper, Fred, Bleddyn and Gwilym returned to the common room to conduct the Risk session. Fred nailed a parchment on the wall and set up quills and ink nearby. When the team had assembled, Gwilym addressed them. “We are gathered this evening to identify all the bad things, however unlikely, that could happen during this project. Things that could make the project take extra time or cost extra money. We have a way to sort these risks into those that we can ignore and those we need to deal with but that will be done during the next planning session. The goal now is to get as many ideas from as many people as possible.”

One of the more outgoing monks, who had been an active participant during the earlier planning sessions, spoke up, “It may rain for many days, making it impossible to dig the foundations.”

“Good!” said Gwilym, writing this down.

“Or there might be an extended freeze, causing the concrete to not cure.” This was the same monk.

Gwilym was shocked by the word concrete. “Do you have the recipe of the Roman concrete?”

The monks looked surprised. “Why, of course,” they replied.

A smile grew over Gwilym’s face who had assumed this recipe was forgotten in this country. “Excellent!” he responded. “What other risks?”

Two other monks chimed in with ideas:

“It could be unseasonably hot, forcing us to take refuge from the sun.”

“There could be high winds, blowing down the steeple before it is complete.”

“An earthquake!”

“Good,” said Gwilym, writing them all down. “What about risks other than weather to the project.”

They all thought for a while. Then the first monk spoke up again, “Fire in the village could spread to the new steeple.”

“Or fire could start on the job site.”

“Or fire could be in the village but that would make us have to leave the job and repair the village.”

It was the same three monks talking while the rest watched. Gwilym was getting concerned. He knew they were all bright but three were dominating the brainstorming session and the rest were standing there in silence. He tried calling on one of the quiet monks. “What about you, brother, what risks do you foresee?”

The quiet monk blushed red and mumbled that he was trying to think of one. Then the loud one chimed in with an idea about injury which started the other two with variations on this new theme. After half an hour of this, Gwilym tried a new strategy.

“I’m concerned that we are not getting the use of all the brainpower in this room. Friar Dan has many great ideas about risk and others are building on his ideas. But I feel that there are many other monks who are just as smart but are not speaking up, because they are more contemplative types who don’t like to shout out ideas in a crowded room.” Many heads nodded at this.

“So here is my new idea. I am going to point at you, one at a time, in the order you are standing around this room. When I do so, you either tell me an idea or say ‘Pass.’ I keep going around the room until I have had three circuits with everyone saying ‘Pass’ and that will indicate to me that the entire group is out of ideas.”

The monks first looked dubious but, after getting a nod from Abbot Crawford, they looked at Gwilym. Gwilym pointed at the first monk and received a risk. He pointed at the next and the next, receiving one risk after another. This worked for about three rounds until monks started saying ‘Pass.’

As more and more monks said ‘Pass’ on their turn and three or four monks always had new ideas, Gwilym sensed the discomfort in the room. Those who were saying ‘Pass’ looked sheepish at those who came up with new ideas. Some even rolled their eyes at the more outgoing types. Also, Gwilym suspected the quiet ones had ideas that they were just not willing to share in front of everyone. The session dragged with seventeen people saying an uncomfortable ‘Pass’ while three came up with increasingly rarer risks. It became a battle of wills with some refusing to speak and others refusing to stop.

Gwilym had that queasy feeling in his stomach when he knew he was publicly failing. He looked at Abbot Crawford who was pleading him with his eyes to call a halt. He took the hint and announced. “My good brothers, it is almost time for Compline. You have had a busy day. Why don’t you get ready for services? We’ll meet again tomorrow after Prime.”

There was an audible sigh of relief as they filed out of the room, leaving Abbot Crawford with Gwilym. Fred and Bleddyn started cleaning up the room and preparing for tomorrow.

“Ye are an excellent Project Planner, Gwilym!” remarked the Abbot. “I liked the way ye set out all our activities for the next nine months.”

Gwilym waited for the other shoe to drop.

“Is this the first time ye have tried to plan for risks?” asked the Abbot.

Gwilym smiled to himself. “Yes, father. And it doesn’t seem to be going that well. The outgoing monks are dominating the risk-gathering and I feel I am alienating the more introspective monks by trying to make them speak up. Have you any ideas?”

“Since I took over as Abbot, I have had one rule. Meetings are usually a waste of time. I have a technique I have used in the past to speed up meetings that I think it will work here. The monks call it the ‘Crawford slip’ technique. Why don’t ye try it?”

He explained the technique to Gwilym.

Gwilym was pleased at first but then he raised one objection. “But then they cannot build off each other’s ideas the way they are now.”

Abbot Crawford then explained the second phase and Gwilym’s fears were allayed. He thanked the Abbot and promised to try the idea on the morrow.

The next morning, as the monks filed in, Gwilym handed each a stack of ten small pieces of papyrus and a quill. There were ink jars standing around the room. They all smiled in recognition of the Crawford slip technique. When they were all ready with an ink-filled quill in their hand, Gwilym spoke:

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

The monks all wrote down a risk then looked back up at Gwilym. After half a minute had elapsed, he spoke again.

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

They all wrote another risk down on their second sheets. Another half minute elapsed.

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

They wrote down a third one.

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

At this point there were some groans but they all complied.

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

Some shook their heads, others racked their brains while pulling lower lips or fidgeting with their fingers but eventually, all wrote down another risk.

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

Gwilym heard groans of frustration but then saw ideas reach them as they scribbled on the pieces of paper.

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

More scribbling.

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

This time Gwilym saw some serious brain-wracking going on. Most wrote something down but some seemed stumped. Either way, after half a minute had expired Gwilym again told them:

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

There were some whimpers now from those who were one risk behind the others but they came up with ideas and scribbled down two in order to catch up.

“Write down one risk associated with building this steeple.”

All of the monks looked like they were dragging through the depths of their brains at this point but, one by one, they all wrote something down. During this entire session, the only person who spoke was Gwilym.

“All right, brothers. You know the drill. Put them on the table in groups without speaking.” Gwilym watched, fascinated. This technique was new to him. Twenty monks had come up with two hundred ideas in five minutes and were now sorting them out for him. Gwilym had understood the first technique and appreciated its efficiency. The Abbot had explained this second technique and Gwilym had asked why there was no talking allowed. Was it part of the monk’s code of silence?

Gwilym had liked the Abbot’s reply. “We have no code of silence on this island. During certain services we use silent prayer or monks may take the code for a period to feel closer to God. No, the silence during the Affinity Diagram session is designed so that everyone has an equal voice. That way, the more outgoing members are put on even footing with the quieter ones and cannot overpower them.”

He watched the technique in action. The first monk placed his risks down in groups of his choosing. The next monk placed his with the first monk’s groups. Some he placed on top of other risks. That was because they were essentially identical. Others were grouped due to obvious similarities, like weather, acts of God, etc. When the third and fourth monks added their risks, some of the groups were split or combined. By the time most of the monks had added their risks to the table, the original groupings were significantly different.

During the grouping, one monk moved a risk from one group to another, then a different monk moved it back. They were not allowed to speak so one mimed an action and would hold the risk next to some of the other risks in a group to show the similarity. Gwilym looked to the Abbot who smiled beatifically. After the risk had passed back and forth three times, the Abbot wrote the same risk on another sheet of papyrus and put one in each group. That seemed to satisfy the two monks.

When all the risks were placed, the monks looked in satisfaction at the Abbot. Gwilym glanced outside and realized that less than half an hour had passed and more than 150 unique risks had been identified and grouped in complete silence. He was impressed.

He thanked the monks and took some blank pieces of papyrus himself. “What is the name of this group?” he asked, pointing.

“Weather related risks,” they replied.

“Good!” said Gwilym, writing that on his piece of papyrus and placing that above the group. The monks named all the groups. Gwilym smiled the way their minds had all come to similar conclusions with each other’s risks.

“All right, brothers. My next step will be to write all these risks down on the risk register, then we’ll reconvene to decide how bad they are. That will take us some time. While that is happening, there is nothing stopping you from beginning the project. I’ll take you outside and get you set up while Fred and Bleddyn write down these risks. We should be ready for the Risk Qualification session after Vespers.”

Plan Risk Management

With excerpts from my Project Management Novel, I will illustrate the many processes of the PMBOK.  Here is the eighteenth one: Plan Risk Management. Use this map to see how this process fits into the scheme of processes. 

After supper, when the younger boys had gone to bed, Gwilym, Fred and Bleddyn discussed Abbot Crawford’s concerns. “He wants us to plan for the risks that might hit the project. Have you any ideas, Fred?”

“We’ve already planned other things: Scope, budget, communications. Why don’t we plan risks th’same way?”

“Right, Fred. So what do we do? First we must come up with a list of risks that could affect our project; all the things that could go wrong. We’ll call that ‘Identify Risks’. Then we need to sort these risks into those that are serious and those that aren’t. How will we do that?”

“There are risks that will cause disaster to th’project if they come to pass. Those are th’risks that we need to worry about.”

“Aye, but what if they are extremely unlikely. Need we spend a lot of time and money trying to stop them from happening when they will likely never happen on their own?”

“I see thy point, Gwilym. But we also don’t need to spend much time worrying about th’risks that are likely but cause not much harm if they happen. Th’risks we have to worry about are those that are likely and dangerous at th’same time.”

Bleddyn stood up and cleared the dinner board of their drinking mugs. Then he placed a piece of blank parchment and some quills and ink on the board and sat back down, resting it back on his knees and the others. He drew a box intersected by a pair of perpendicular lines, to use as a graph. “I’m labeling the vertical axis: ‘Intensity of Risk’ and the horizontal axis: ‘Probability of risk’. Any risk that is low in probability and intensity, can be ignored.” He placed a dot in the lower left quadrant of the graph.

“Can we change the name of the vertical axis to ‘Severity of Risk’? That sounds better to me,” asked Gwilym.

“Yes, Da. Now, the risks that have high inten…I mean severity and high probability,” he placed a dot in the upper right quadrant, “must be dealt with immediately.”

“That’s right!” exclaimed Fred.

“Now, what about risks in these quadrants?” asked Bleddyn as he drew dots in the upper left and lower right quadrants.

“That’s the question isn’t it?” said Gwilym. They all thought for a while.

Fred spoke up. “What if we gave numbers to th’risks? Rather than just put them in quadrants, add numbers on these axes like this.” He drew numbers from 1 – 10 on both axes. “Then we multiply th’risk times th’severity and we get a number. Th’bigger th’number, th’more seriously we take it.”

Gwilym looked at Bleddyn and both nodded their heads in agreement. Then Bleddyn spoke up. “But how do we measure probability? What is the likelihood of something bad happening? And how do we give that a number from 1 – 10?”

Gwilym pulled on his lower lip. “We need a scale. Something like this.” He turned the parchment so that it was facing him and drew numbers next to Fred’s 1 – 10. Next to the number One, he wrote 1/100,000. Next to the number Ten, he wrote ½. “The chances of something happening needs to be somewhere between these two extremes. Perhaps a Two is 1/50,000. A Nine is ¼. A Three is 1/10,000. An Eight is 1/10.”

Fred squirmed and interrupted, “I get it. A Four is 1/5,000. A Seven is 1/50. A Five is 1/1,000 and a Six is 1/100. Somethin’ like that, right?”

Gwilym had been writing the numbers down that Fred had suggested. “Yes. That is our probability scale. Now we won’t be able to measure exactly what the probabilities are for any risk, but a group of people should be able to come to a consensus whether the likelihood is 1/10,000 or 1/100. Don’t you agree?”

They nodded.

“Now what kind of scale should we use for severity?” asked Bleddyn.

“The project being delayed is the biggest cause of concern. So we should use the scale as number of days of delay the risk causes to the project. So, One means one day delay, Ten means the project fails completely and the numbers in between mean increasingly greater delays.”

Bleddyn had been filling in numbers on the vertical axis.

1. One day
2. Two days
3. Four days
4. One week
5. Two weeks
6. One month
7. Two months
8. Four months
9. Eight months
10. Project fails

Gwilym smiled at his son. “I like it; you’ve doubled the previous number each time.”

Fred was frowning. “But what about cost? Some risks don’t affect th’schedule of th’project but still cost money. How will we take care of those risks?”

“I know! Use the same scale but start the costs at one silver and keep doubling it up the scale.”

Bleddyn nodded and wrote next to the previous schedule scale the following:

1. One silver
2. Two silver
3. Four silver
4. Ten silver
5. One Gold
6. Two Gold
7. Four Gold
8. Eight Gold
9. Sixteen Gold
10. Thirty-two Gold

“No,” said Gwilym. The upper end is not severe enough. 32 gold is pretty bad but not equivalent to the project failing. Try tripling the cost each unit.”

Bleddyn changed some numbers:

1. One silver
2. Three silver
3. Nine silver
4. Two Gold
5. Six Gold
6. Twenty Gold
7. 50 Gold
8. 150 Gold
9. 500 Gold
10. Project Fails

“Much better,” said Gwilym. “Two gold is equivalent to a week delay in the project. And eight months delay is equivalent to about 500 gold in cost. I like it!”

“Aye, but what about if a risk causes an extra cost of one week plus two gold? Then what number do we give it? ‘Tis rarely one or th’other”

“Move to the next highest number. Make that a severity of Five,” suggested Gwilym. They all nodded heads.

“All right then,” said Gwilym. We have the tool we need to sort the risks we identified, what do we call it?”

“Quantify Risks?” suggested Bleddyn. “We end up with a number that indicates how bad the risks are.”

“We do,” agreed Gwilym, “but the number isn’t really the quantity. For instance, if we found a risk that Fred just mentioned that cost a week and two gold and the probability score we gave it was Five, we would score it a Twenty-five. But twenty-five what? Gold? Silver? Days? Twenty-five is not the quantity of the risk. The real risk to the project would be the impact on the cost and the schedule divided by 1,000 because that is the chance of that risk occurring. So the quantified risk would be 1/500 of a gold or one third of a copper piece and 10 minutes. But that’s assuming we know exactly the probability and the severity. More likely we’re just guessing the relative size of the risks.”

“So what we are really doing is performing Risk Qualification, not Quantification. We get a relative number we can use to sort risks into those we have to deal with and those we can allow to happen.”

Fred spoke up. “Do we need th’graph. Can’t we just use th’numbers and th’multiplied result to figure out which risks are worst?”

Gwilym realized Fred was correct and he turned the parchment over. “We can use a table instead.” He drew rows and columns. He headed the first column: ‘Risk’, the second: ‘Probability’, the third: ‘Severity’, the fourth: ‘Total Risk’. “Now we can just enter the risks, figure out the numbers using the scales, multiply them together and figure out which risk is the worst.”

“Then what?” asked Bleddyn.

“Then we need to do something about the bad risks. We need to eliminate them, starting with the worst ones and working our way down.”

“Aye, Bleddyn. But how do tha eliminate risks? In Londinium, we knew that some of th’boat owners might want to get out into th’river after we had blocked it off. But how do you stop that from happenin’?”

“We told the boat owners we ran into that we planned on placing supports for the arch during October and November. We asked them to tell their friends. I suppose we should have made an effort to tell every boat owner our plans so that that one captain wouldn’t have needed to move when it was too late.”

“Would that have eliminated the risk, Da?”

Gwilym thought for a while. “No, son. It wouldn’t have eliminated it. It would have lowered the probability, left the severity the same but wouldn’t have eliminated it.”

“How do tha eliminate a risk?” asked Fred.

“The only way you eliminate a risk entirely is to change the project so that risk cannot happen. In the case of the boats in Londinium, we would have had to make arch supports that still allowed boats to pass underneath.”

“But that’s not possible. Tha would have to build an arch under th’arch for that. Even then, th’boats could not have fit under.”

“That’s right, Fred. Therefore, not all risks can be eliminated. So it is a different strategy. Changing the scope so that a risk is eliminated is called…‘Avoid the risk’. Lowering the probability is called…‘Mitigate the Risk’.”

“What about if we lower the severity of a risk, Da? What’s that called?”

“Either way, it lowers that total risk number so we should call it ‘Mitigate the Risk’.”

“Are they the only two strategies tha can use to deal with risks?”

“Let’s think about some of our other projects. What other things did we do when we were confronted with problems. Could there be other strategies?”

“In Caernarfon, there was that crazy prince, Arthog, who was holding up the project,” said Bleddyn. “You dealt with him but that was dangerous. What if you’d paid someone else to deal with him. What would you call that strategy?”

“That’s not removing part of the project to eliminate the risk. It’s more like giving part of the project to someone else to deal with and making them live with the risk as well. You’re transferring the risk to someone else. You’d have to pay them of course.”

“Aye, but tha wouldn’t have to tell them about th’risk added to that part of th’project would tha? Tha could just say, ‘I’ll give tha ten silver to get th’site ready for us.’”

“No. I don’t think that properly transfers the risk. When they realize they’ve been tricked, they will most likely give us our money back and say, ‘It’s yours again.’ No. You have to tell them about the risk so they can do the job properly.”

“But, Da. Why would anyone take that job and why would they do it any better than you?”

“I suppose it’s like when we hire specialists to do certain jobs. We hire quarrymen to cut rock for us because they do it better and cheaper than if we just dug around in the woods for rock. We could have hired an armored knight to bring in Arthog. He would have been safe and done it a lot quicker than our muddled efforts. It would have cost money but saved time.”

Fred was writing in his Project Management Guide. “So we have three strategies, Avoid, Mitigate and Transfer. Any others?”

“The rest we’ll just have to accept. It will cost more time and money to try and avoid, mitigate or transfer them than it will cost if they occur. So we’ll accept them as part of the project.”

“So we don’t do anything? Just leave them there to bite us whenever they want?” asked Bleddyn.

“Remember, son, they’re the small risks. We already figured that out when we did the risk qualification. But you’re right. Knowing the risk is there means we could at least put together a plan for dealing with the low probability, medium impact ones so that we’re ready if they hit the project. We could figure out what to do if it hits and only do that if it does comes to pass.”

“What do tha call that?”

“A contingency plan. We won’t do it for all the risks we accept, just the few we’re concerned enough about that their impact will be bad on the project if they hit. Those with a low impact, let’s just let them do their worst.”

Bleddyn turned the parchment back over. “So if we have risks in the upper right quadrant and in the top part of the upper left quadrant and the right part of the lower right quadrant, we must deal with them using the strategies of Avoid, Mitigate or Transfer. If they are lower probability but medium severity, those in the lower part of the upper left quadrant, we make contingency plans. All the rest of the risks, we accept, right?”

“That’s grand, Bleddyn,” said Fred. “I’ll add that graph and table to my guide.”

“Well fellows,” said Gwilym, standing and stretching. “I’m tired. What do you say we get some sleep? We’ll be planning all day tomorrow plus identifying lots of risks.”

The other two agreed and made preparations for sleep. Madoc was whimpering a little in his sleep so Bleddyn lay beside him to provide a little comfort. Fred stayed up by the firelight a little longer, writing the essence of tonight’s discussion in his guide before turning in.